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...Reagan Dream Machine was the work of Lawrence Kudlow, 33, former chief economist for the Wall Street investment banking firm of Bear, Stearns & Co., and John Rutledge, 32, head of the Claremont Economics Institute in Southern California...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Black-Box Forecasting | 2/23/1981 | See Source »

...Kudlow, who will soon be named chief economist of the Office of Management and Budget, insists that traditional econometric models are useless now because they do not measure the explosion of work and savings that will occur when President Reagan cuts taxes. Said Kudlow: "We have a new set of ideas, and a traditional model would merely serve to mislead and confuse the American people...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Black-Box Forecasting | 2/23/1981 | See Source »

Other professional economists, however, claimed that it was Kudlow and Rutledge who were misleading people. M.I.T.'s Lester Thurow derided their whole approach on the ground that the two economists were asking people to accept their predictions without revealing how they had been calculated. Said he: "These numbers are being thrown out of a black box. Normally, whether it is a conservative or a liberal Administration, somebody has a chance to complain about the evidence, meet the people face to face, and argue about whether it's right or wrong. These two guys are throwing out projections without...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Black-Box Forecasting | 2/23/1981 | See Source »

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