Word: kurdish
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...Maliki could mend the rift in the Shi'ite vote and cut a deal with the INA (which won 70 seats), that combination alone would put him just four seats shy of a majority - a difference he could easily make up by resuming his alliance with the Kurdish bloc, which garnered 43 seats. It may not be that easy, of course, because both the key element of the INA - the supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr - and the Kurdish leadership have been antagonized by al-Maliki's leadership and would prefer to see him gone. They could yet try and make...
There may be an element of truth in that charge, because Iran has previously backed the broad Shi'ite-Kurdish alliance that brought al-Maliki to power, and is clearly pressing for another friendly, Shi'ite-led government in Baghdad. Allawi is fiercely antagonistic toward Tehran, and his bloc was strongly backed by Sunni Arab regimes such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, which are leery of Iranian influence in Arab lands. (Those governments have been standoffish toward al-Maliki.) (See pictures of the U.S. troops in Iraq...
...challenge now is to persuade Shi'ite and Kurdish parties that he will serve their interests better than al-Maliki did. If history is any judge, he'll have an easier time with the Kurds, who lean toward secularism, than the Shi'ites...
...Even if the results announced today hold up to scrutiny, there's a chance al-Maliki will be able to pull together a coalition to form the new government and retain the Prime Ministership. Meanwhile, the main Shi'ite bloc, the National Iraqi Alliance, won 70 seats; the main Kurdish alliance got 43. A simple majority of 163 seats is needed to govern. (See a 2004 interview with then Prime Minister Allawi...
...Another major stumbling block in the negotiations to form a government will be the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and the other disputed areas in northern Iraq. In a surprising turnaround, the Kurdish parties appear to have lost Kirkuk by a slim margin to Allawi's list, which has taken a hard line against Kurdish claims to the city. Since Maliki - whose current government was installed with Kurdish support, but dragged its feet on Kurdish claims to Kirkuk - now has fewer possible partners to form a government, he may find himself more dependent on them than ever. And that would...