Word: kuwait
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...Such telegenic stunts have replaced any serious attempts at diplomacy in Iraq's 20-day standoff with the United Nations. With most Arab countries ? even Kuwait ? expressing opposition to a U.S. air strike, Saddam is evidently maneuvering himself into the position of anti-American leadership he always sought. Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz is pushing the image for all it's worth: In Morocco Sunday, he warned of a backlash by "Arab masses" in the event of military action...
Clinton immediately decided to press the U.N. to add new sanctions to the trade embargo that has crippled Iraq's economy since the country invaded Kuwait in 1990. If Saddam continued to resist, the White House signaled, it was more than ready to use military force. The Pentagon has 18,500 soldiers, 17 ships and 200 warplanes in the region poised to launch a retaliatory strike if the American inspectors in Baghdad are endangered...
...then swinging another 100 plus points on Friday. In absolute terms, there's never been anything like this flurry of 100- and 200-point moves. Even in percentage terms--the thing that matters--the market hasn't been quite like this since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait...
...Saddam Hussein offers proof that he has nukes, and says, by the way, he'd really like to rule Kuwait. Oil prices soar. No one thinks about inflation; it's dead. The Dow jumps to a 265-point gain, led by Chevron and Exxon...
...what economists call "exogenous shocks"--a fancy term for unforeseen events like Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait--could shatter the rosy forecasts. So could overzealous monetary tightening by the Fed, which may nudge up interest rates for the second time this year when it meets next week. "Expansions don't die of old age," says David Wyss, research director for DRI/McGraw Hill. "But, like people, they do become vulnerable to shocks." This time around, says Wyss, there seems to be enough cushioning to get us to the next millennium in style...