Word: lasting
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...dead of winter. This January, all eyes are trained on Belarus, which has been having its own quarrel with Moscow over oil prices, threatening European energy supplies once again. But three weeks into the current standoff, there's been a twist: Kazakhstan, another former Soviet republic, stepped in last week to offer Belarus its own oil. Now the Kremlin's most reliable tool for controlling its neighbors - energy blackmail - is at risk of blowing up in its face...
...Lukashenko declined to recognize the breakaway Georgian republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, despite pressure from Russia to do so. Lukashenko also joined the E.U.'s Eastern Partnership initiative, created in 2008 to strengthen ties between Europe and the ex-Soviet bloc, much to Moscow's dismay. And last June, Belarus refused to attend a key security summit in Moscow after Russia slapped a ban on Belarusian dairy products. (See pictures of Russia celebrating Victory...
...Then late last year, the spat escalated when Russia decided that Belarus no longer deserved its energy subsidies. When the two countries' existing oil contract expired on Dec. 31, Russia demanded additional payments of a whopping $2.5 billion, which amounts to about 5% of Belarus' entire economy. The Russian government also hinted that in order to keep oil prices down, Belarus should give Moscow a stake in its energy infrastructure - namely the oil refineries it uses to process oil for resale to Europe. This would play into Russia's larger aim of controlling the energy supply chain from...
...dissolved into an exchange of letters with competing demands. But despite the tough position Lukashenko staked out, analysts believed that Russia would get its way in the end, as Belarus' economy and security are still deeply dependent on Russia despite improved relations with the West. Lukashenko admitted as much last month when he said that severing ties with the Kremlin - as Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has done - would bring about his "political death." (See pictures of Vladimir Putin's patriotic youth camp...
...Read "Belarus: Can Europe Change Its 'Last Dictatorship...