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That may sound like a cop-out. At least until you consider how many other economic forecasters got it wrong. Dozens of states have found themselves with budget shortfalls, some quite massive, partly because economists weren't ratcheting down expectations of tax revenue nearly fast enough. In late November, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters indicated GDP would decline at an annual pace of 1.1% for the first three months of 2009. The economy proceeded to shrink at a pace of 5.5%. (See what to expect when the recession ends...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...results suggest that as girls progress from early puberty to late adolescence, certain regions of their brains become more active when they face a potential social interaction. Specifically, when an older girl anticipates meeting someone new - someone she believes will be interested in her - her nucleus accumbens (which is associated with reward and motivation), hypothalamus (associated with hormone secretion), hippocampus (associated with social learning) and insula (associated with subjective feelings) all become more active. By contrast, boys in the same situation show no such increase in activity in these areas. In fact, the activity in their insula actually declines. (Read...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Girls Have BFFs and Boys Hang Out in Packs | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...havoc in the financial market as the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers did last fall. CIT, which was founded 101 years ago, lends to hundreds of thousands of small businesses and also provides money to other firms, called factors, that help small businesses finance their day-to-day operations. In late 2008, the Treasury Department gave CIT $2.3 billion in federal assistance from TARP funds. But apparently, the Treasury Department's bar for bailouts has risen, and CIT isn't tall enough anymore. And while some bank stocks traded down on Thursday, investors mostly shrugged off news of CIT's possible...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: In CIT Woes, Some See Restart of Financial Crisis | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

...Incredible Tale The story of the monks from the Tibhirine monastery - some 55 miles (90 km) south of Algiers - has always been full of inconsistencies. A few weeks after the monks disappeared in late March 1996, a GIA statement claimed that the men had been grabbed so they could be exchanged for captured militants, a notion that perplexed terrorist experts more used to the GIA killing its enemies in well-planned strikes. Puzzlement grew when the GIA issued a second communiqué in May, saying that it had "slit the throats of the seven monks." Some French officials suspect Algerian...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Could Seven Dead Monks Upset President Nicolas Sarkozy's Bold Plans To Remake France's Legal System? | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

...today's report also offered some reassurance that perhaps the fudge factor isn't that big an issue. Electricity generation snapped back sharply in the second quarter, statistics show. Some analysts believe the drop late last year and early in 2009 was consistent with an economy in which heavy users of power, such as steel and aluminum factories, were slashing production is response to weakened global demand. Now, China's aggressive government spending has refired the furnaces...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: China's Economic Recovery Gathers Steam | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

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