Word: ldp
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While final tallies won't be counted until Monday morning, early results indicate that the ruling coalition of Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the New Komeito party has decisively lost its majority to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). For the first time in the history of the LDP - which has dominated Japanese politics since its founding in 1955 - the Upper House will be controlled by an opposition party, potentially paving the way for Japan's first true two-party system. "This election was entirely a vote of no-confidence for Abe and the LDP/Komeito coalition...
...seem resigned to the return of Japanese politics as usual. Back at the Minato welfare office, 71-year-old Asako Hamada sees little reason for hope. "I don't know anything about politics, but I know things are not well at the present moment," she says. "That neither the LDP nor the opposition parties have been able to offer any resolutions that give peace of mind to the Japanese is quite worrying." Candidates from both parties running on July 29 should be worried...
...strategy played to the fears of a Japanese public worried about the viability of their pensions given the country's aging, declining population. Abe belatedly pushed through bills to reform the inefficient SIA, but the pension scandal seemed to prove that the Prime Minister couldn't govern. "The LDP leadership failed to act," says Taro Kono, an LDP Diet member. "And now we have to pay the debt...
...unclear just how badly the LDP would have to lose in the coming elections for Abe to be forced out. Though Kono believes Abe should stay on, a recent internal LDP poll projected the party might win as few as 37 seats-well short of what would be needed to hold onto the Upper House. "If that's the case, he'll probably have to go," Kono says. The likely successor would be Foreign Minister Taro Aso, who finished a distant second to Abe in last September's LDP presidential contest and who covets the top job. But the stern...
...Besides, the DPJ fails to beat the LDP at the polls with depressing regularity. "[DPJ leader Ichiro] Ozawa has been singularly good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory," says Richard Katz, editor of the Oriental Economist newsletter. Though the DPJ has gained a slight edge on the LDP since the pension scandal broke, its own approval ratings rarely break 25%, and most Japanese say they're simply fed up with both parties. Even if the DPJ does manage to seize the Upper House-Ozawa has promised to resign if his party falters-they'll be faced with...