Word: lebanon
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...assault on Lebanon is intended to send a broader message too, at a time when Israel has largely given up on trying to negotiate for peace and security and instead is trying to establish them on its own. The strongest argument made by domestic critics of Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip last year was that the country's enemies would think it was weak and frightened and thus would be encouraged to strike out. Olmert's dual counterblasts are aimed at changing that impression--among those who believe it--to make the idea of attacking Israel prohibitively scary...
...bleak as it now looks, it's not entirely out of the question. The chances are greater in Lebanon, where there are actors with a clear interest in taming Hizballah. As in past flare-ups on the border, coming to terms will almost surely require a third-party interlocutor. "It could be the Red Cross or the Germans, the French, maybe a special adviser to Kofi Annan," says an Israeli intelligence official...
...most alarming aspect of the unfolding crisis in the Middle East isn't how many actors are jumping in. It's who is opting to stay out. Hamas, Hizballah and Israel are directly involved; Iran and Syria by proxy; Lebanon against its will. The U.N. is dispatching its mediators; the European Union is contemplating doing the same. But the U.S., despite colossal strategic stakes, threats to its own security, potential repercussions in Iraq, not to mention staggering loss of life, remains on the sidelines. The world's sole superpower is also its only no-show...
...problem. Since 2000, with the collapse of any Arab-Israeli peace process, the start of the war on terrorism and the U.S. invasion of Iraq, regional actors have lacked a clear compass, rules of the road or a referee. Syria is being told to clean up its act in Lebanon and Iraq; Iran to drop its nuclear program and to stop meddling in its neighbor's affairs; Hamas to undergo an ideological revolution; Hizballah to disarm. All are perfectly justifiable demands, but none are being accompanied by a clear and appealing incentive for the parties' taking such actions--other, that...
...halted without robust, credible and influential third-party involvement. None of the actors will want to appear overly eager for a cease-fire, but more than a few might--at the appropriate time--leap at an outsider's proposed deal. That happened before, in the 1980s and 1990s, when Lebanon was the arena for similar proxy wars and when the U.S., then the energetic mediator, was the instrument of diplomatic negotiations. Without U.S. support, it's doubtful that the U.N.'s mediators will be able to muster similar muscle...