Word: lebanons
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...There is nothing but two equally bad outcomes here. Hizballah takes over, creating an Iranian-allied Shi'a state, and Lebanon becomes a template for resurgent Shi'a throughout the Gulf. And certainly another war with Israel. Or, two, a civil war on par with Iraq's. In either case, fasten your seatbelts...
...Baghdad burns, Hizballah is setting Beirut on fire. And the outcome of the struggle in Lebanon will have as much or more significance than what happens in Iraq...
...Last week the Lebanese army failed to stop Hizballah from closing down Beirut and much of the rest of Lebanon. The Shi'ite organization made sure everyone knows it can take Beirut, historically a Sunni city, whenever it wants. The rioting that followed will be to Hizballah's benefit, since it thrives on chaos...
...Today Hizballah will tell you this is all ancient history, a chapter in Lebanon's civil war best forgotten. Autres temps, autres moeurs. They will point out that during last summer's war Hizballah didn't touch a hair of a single American, even though the United States was fully behind the retaliatory Israeli bombardment of Hizballah. (The fact that Hizballah didn't kidnap or kill Americans is a distinction without a difference for Israeli civilians killed by Hizballah Katushka rockets...
...Stepped-up diplomatic contact between Iran and the Saudis has also fueled considerable speculation that a face-saving compromise may be in the works end the political crisis in Lebanon. But as Thursday's unscripted surge of sectarian violence demonstrated, a political deal may come too late to cool the seething passions on the streets of Beirut...