Word: lebanons
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...coup d'etat, if you like. Then on Tuesday, the anti-Syrian minister Pierre Gemayel was assassinated. His father, Amin Gemayel, is the pro-American former president, his grandfather was the founder of the Christian Phalange party, and you can count on his assassination having momentous political consequences for Lebanon. I asked my friend what happens if the government doesn't give into Hizballah and resign. It's simple - Beirut burns, he said...
...closer to a civil war in Lebanon than we were last week. But I think a couple of things have to happen before the Lebanese start filling sandbags. One likely trigger could be Lebanon's going ahead with an international tribunal to try the suspects accused of assassinating former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005. Neither Syria nor Hizballah will stand for a tribunal, believing it would be little more than a U.S. and French show trial intended to isolate them. And that's not to mention that several Syrian officials are actually implicated in Hariri's murder...
...Nasrallah's standing now is higher than that of Iranian spiritual leader Ayatollah Khameini - which if true would be an earthshaking shift in the Middle East. Finally, considering that Hizballah's military forces are stronger and more disciplined than the Lebanese army's, why would Nasrallah defer to Lebanon's government on the tribunal, disarming, or anything else...
...unlikely that any of these killings could have taken place without at least the assistance of some parties or factions within Lebanon. Many of the killings have been sophisticated, well-timed operations that bear the hallmarks of a highly trained intelligence organization. Several former leaders of Lebanon's own police and security services are in prison in this country under suspicion for involvement in the Hariri assassination. Hizballah, which itself has this kind of operational capability, has accused Israel of staging these assassinations to sow disunity...
...While the identity of Gemayel's killers remains a matter of speculation, what is clear is that the stakes are getting higher for Siniora. By tradition, the Lebanese cabinet contains members of all the country's main sectarian groupings. Without any ministers who are Shi'ite - Lebanon's largest community - the legitimacy of his government is open to question. And if the government can't maintain security - or even protect its own officials - many Lebanese may turn to someone...