Word: likelihood
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...Interfaculty Initiative’s 2008 Distinguished Lecture Series. Kahneman opened the evening by presenting a series of examples of persistent flaws in intuition. In his “Linda” scenario, for example, Kahneman revealed the tendency for people to misjudge probabilities. Respondents frequently estimate that the likelihood of a woman named Linda being both a bank teller and active in the feminist movement was greater than the probability of her just being a bankteller, simply because of the way Linda is described. But base-rate probabilities make it impossible for this to be true. In a later...
...second floor. “I believe that rather than renewing the lease on the second floor, they’ve decided not to renew it,” Ittelson said. “Since Harvard has just taken over most of the building, it seems that the likelihood of them taking over this floor is very high.” Other businesses that have offices on the second floor of the building include educational consultants and public relations firms. Though Harvard owns the building, HQ Global Workplaces, Inc. has a lease within the building, according to Patricia Whelchel...
...selling himself as the President to settle the peace, not continue the war. Yet some of the senator’s recent comments suggest he has far less of an interest in peace than in popularity. In an Associated Press interview from July 2007, Obama suggested that even the likelihood of genocide was insufficient grounds for retaining an American presence in Iraq. “If that’s the criteria by which we are making decisions on the deployment of U.S. forces, then by that argument you would have 300,000 troops in the Congo right now?...
...Furthermore, the Muslim contingent, composing over 95 percent of British Bangladeshis and Pakistanis—or about 3 percent of the British population—is increasingly at risk of radicalization if the situation does not change. Independent research from the Center of Immigration Studies laments the likelihood of disadvantaged Muslims becoming involved with organized crime groups, and the possibility that they will be jailed and exposed to religious radicals during their time in prison...
...Airbus A320, and that is good news. It means the flight will not end with the heart-stopping corkscrew landing that characterized all my previous arrivals in smaller, more nimble aircraft. If Royal Jordanian is willing to use a large jetliner, it can only mean that the likelihood of a missile attack has greatly diminished...