Word: likelihood
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...students.If you’ve got a good group, tutorial’s intimidation will soon give way to camaraderie and late night e-mail chains about how screwed you are for the paper due tomorrow. You probably never thought historiography would be such a hoot, but in all likelihood you’ll be cracking jokes about Hayden White before you pack your bags for Thanksgiving. If you don’t find epistemology intriguing by then, you should probably pack your bags for the English department, too. Junior year heralds the celebrated one-on-one junior tutorial. It?...
...tactics of the Bush campaign to target new voters. “LifeTargeting” mines consumer data (purchased from credit card companies) to pair with voter lists, creating a master list which can be organized by “lifestyle type,” political habits, and likelihood to vote. This master list predicted with 80 to 90 percent accuracy whether a person was likely to vote Republican and helped the Bush team “micro-target” their campaigning where it would be most effective. Whether you’re an “Anti-Porn...
Iranians seem resigned to the likelihood that with tensions rising, the situation at home is likely to get worse. Earlier last month, police confiscated all the illegal satellite dishes in my neighborhood under the guise of preventing the broadcast of impure content. The "real" story circulating among residents went like this: a regime official had recently begun importing small, laptop-size satellite dishes that work indoors. If the government rounded up the rooftop dishes, everyone would be forced to buy the official's dishes. For a while, people on my block stood outside debating what to do. The elders finally...
...Reed Kroloff, dean of the Tulane University school of architecture, urges caution to speculators, even locals. "It's foolhardy if they're buying up property in an area where the likelihood of them having a neighbor again is minimal," he argues. "New Orleans East has only 10% to 13% of its population because of power problems. Lakeview, the same. It will be very hard to regenerate their neighborhoods because so many people aren't coming back...
...Later this month, Iran will respond to the West's incentives package to negotiate over its nuclear program. In all likelihood, it will either say no or hedge, and the stage will be set for a drawn-out confrontation whose outcome will be determining to the Middle East. Eager to forecast what will happen, and to clarify what kind of threat Iran proposes, observers are grasping for clues everywhere, from Iran's ancient history to its religious practices. Many of these arguments lead away, not toward, the very real tensions dividing the country. Here are two analytical pitfalls to avoid...