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There's an easy way to represent this visually: the fan chart. What starts as a line quickly becomes a blurry fan-shaped region, underscoring that as time marches forward, the variable being forecast falls into an ever broader range of possibilities. "The more you think in terms of distribution of outcomes, the better," says Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard economist who chaired President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. "You're always keeping in mind the inherent uncertainty." The Bank of England is a big user of the fan chart when its economists talk about inflation forecasts. Plenty...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...done right. Lerner’s script combines a romance novel with a political treatise—sometimes awkwardly. Despite this challenge, the actors capture their characters’ essence. Dean radiates sincerity. When he is pondering in his study, he stomps his feet to trace his line of thought. When he is cursing Merlyn (Herman Petras) for never teaching him how to handle a woman, he twitches in anger. And when he is telling Davie that he wants to be “the wisest, most heroic, most splendid king who ever sat on any throne...

Author: By Brian J. Bolduc | Title: One Brief, Shining Moment | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

Brownback, Senator Sam • legislation is proposed by to ban the creation of "part-human, part-animal creatures, which are created in laboratories, and blur the line between the species," because this - not the economy, or health care, or education - is what's really important...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: This Preposterous Week! Paul Slansky's News Index | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...European Economic Area (EEA), Iceland already has access to the E.U.'s single market. It is also part of Europe's border-free Schengen zone, and virtually all the other E.U. programs open to non-member states. Around two-thirds of all Icelandic law is already in line with E.U. rules...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Iceland's Urgent Bid to Join the E.U. | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...write about an amateur boxing match in which you participated. You had your nose broken and your jaw knocked out of line. Would you ever box again? I would like to box again. It's very thrilling. I'm not the sort to jump out of a plane or skydive, but in boxing, you're really putting yourself on the edge, especially for a safe, middle-class person like myself. I wish I was the kind of writer who would go to a war zone and write about something that's meaningful and important to people, but that...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Writer Jonathan Ames | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

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