Word: loaning
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...assets that aren't on its balance sheet but kept in entities somewhat removed from the company. These assets could be problematic if the economy grows worse. Fox-Pitt Kelton's Trone also points out what's not included in the government backing: $129 billion in nonresidential consumer loans like credit cards, auto loans and small-business, student and personal lines; $150 billion of consumer loans overseas; and Citi's corporate-loan portfolio. Put simply, there's room for more to go wrong...
...addition, Citigroup holds $172 billion in loans to corporations. In general, corporate bonds have not fallen a lot because there have not been many defaults. The aggregate Barclays corporate bond index is down 3%. Still, because of the size of Citigroup's loan book, wave goodbye to another $5 billion...
...Citi's lending business has actually performed relatively well in this environment. In the third quarter, the company said it had $5 billion in loans on which customers were no longer making payments. In all, Citigroup has set aside $24 billion for loan loss reserves. For most firms, that's a lot of IOUs to go bad. But for Citi it's peanuts. In fact, $24 billion is just under 3.5% of Citi's overall loan book of $718 billion. And that's not a bad charge-off rate during a time when sub-prime mortgage loans are defaulting...
...have read about Citigroup's Special Investment Vehicles. Through SIVs and other structures Citigroup has kept some of its loan liabilities off its balance sheet. On Wednesday, Citigroup said it would repurchase the last of those SIV assets for $17 billion. But Citigroup still has a remarkable $130 billion in unfunded off-balance-sheet liabilities. Not all of that will go bad. But conditions don't look good for the $2.5 billion in obligations to off-balance-sheet collateralized debt obligations, or to a lesser extent the $63 billion it has in asset-backed debt...
...these potential losses are based on the value that Citi is putting on its loans. And Citi has no obligation to write down all of the loans on its books. In fact, it recently said that it was going to stop taking so-called mark-to-market losses on an additional $80 billion in assets of its loan portfolio. So even if the value of its loans continues to fall, it may not have to take a hit to its equity. And as long as most of Citi's borrowers keep paying, as most are, Citi will be just fine...