Word: localism
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Municipal bonds have long been a no-brainer investment. But not any more. A growing number of analysts and financial planners are raising doubts about the bonds of local and state governments. They worry that a weakened economy, along with rising cost of benefits for city workers, will make it tougher for local governments to meet their obligations...
...Cordaro isn't the only one having doubts. Last week, ratings agency Moody's lowered its outlook for the debt of local governments to 'Negative.' In its report, the ratings agency said local governments face "unprecedented fiscal challenges," over the next 18 months. The report also noted that this was the first time Moody's analysts were broadly worried about the ability of local governments to pay back their debts. Among the places Moody's finds to be most troubled are cities in Florida and California, because of the real estate bust, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, which are being hurt...
...past two years, however, munis' predictability has been replaced by volatility. The bonds of state and local governments were among the worst performing sectors of the debt market in 2007, before falling off a cliff last year. The average muni bond fund lost 9.4% in 2008, and there were ten funds that lost more than...
...economic crisis unfolds it's getting harder to make the case that the financials of local governments are sound. "We know that there is going to be a number of states that will have problems balancing their budgets," says Diahann Lassus, a financial planner in New Providence...
...Unemployment, which hit of rate of 8.5% last month, is higher than it has been in 25 years, and sales taxes are plummeting. Worse, local governments on average get nearly three-quarters of their tax revenue from real estate assessments. Falling property values and rising foreclosures mean that source of revenue is drying up as well. Many local governments have built up reserves anticipating the downturn in the housing market, but Moody's says that might not be enough. "The sharpness of the housing downturn and speed of the general economic contraction will likely test the sufficiency of those reserve...