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...there's absolutely no rational reason why a rally couldn't be considered the real thing. I've looked at all of the major stock market collapses that we've had (40% decline, or more) including this one. Since 1900, we've had six others, and two of them were Depression related - one was the beginning of Great Depression and one was in the middle of the Depression era, in 1937. And the other four were outside of that era. When you look at those, what you find out is, off the low of every one of those...
...that fear is way over the top, not the least of which is the level of cash holdings by private households and businesses as a percent of GDP - it's at a post-World War II high. There's so much sideline buying power - dry powder - and everywhere you look and it shows up in the Fed's statements. Part of this is because the Fed is dumping so much in [to the economy] and part because people have gotten very liquid and "safe." (See pictures of the top 10 scared traders...
...penny stocks, practically, are the big banks and the automakers. Will we look back in 10 years and wish we had bought them now? Viewing them as stock groups, I think we will. But that's an important distinction - in both cases, if you buy an individual automaker or an individual bank, you could pick the wrong one and it could be liquidated. But if you talk about the industry group, the answer is yes, especially for the banks...
...over the ensuing decades have confirmed that most of us make this so-called anchoring mistake - that is, making a decision based largely on an unrelated piece of information, like a random number that appears on a wheel. Anchoring occurs all the time, like when you're asked to look at your Social Security number before answering a question (you're more likely to pick an answer close to the digits in your SSN). A team of researchers even showed in a 2003 paper in the Quarterly Journal of Economics that people will endure more physical discomfort (exposure...
...essential to have a strong cost-benefit analysis in support of any regulation as a way of selling it to the American public. If I were a President who wanted to have a strong environmental agenda, the last thing I would do is say, "We're not going to look at the costs of these regulations; we're just going to do them...