Word: lynch
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...This is the 'New Japan' and it's spelled 'T-O-U-G-H.'" JESPER KOLL, chief economist at Merrill Lynch Japan, on the need for real reform, not old-style pork-barrel solutions...
...view that monetary policy will only affect the economy with a lag of nine to 18 months," says Julian Callow, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston. "So they want to be very sure before they cut rates." The risk is that they've waited too long already. Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnett is holding out hope for a rate cut this month, but adds: "They are already behind the curve. The manufacturing sector will be in recession by summer...
...Europe is 12 to 18 months ahead of the U.S. on the rollout of interactive television (ITV) services, according to Merrill Lynch. That lead can be chalked up to three factors: satellite TV is more popular in Europe than in the U.S., and satellite operators are the early adopters of interactive technology; PC penetration in homes is lower in Europe than in the U.S.; and Europeans are used to interacting with their TV sets - they have been using teletext services since 1977. Says Paul Zwillenberg, executive vice president and managing director of KPE Europe, which has digital media production operations...
...corporate spending slowdown continues unabated. Merrill Lynch projects that business spending on equipment and software will rise only 4.5% this year--the weakest showing since the last recession, in 1991. On Friday the government reported that industrial production dropped for the fifth month in a row. "People are counting too much on the Fed," says Ken Shea, head of stock research at S&P. "The cost of capital is not the issue. The corporate executives do not want to spend right now." After huge technology investments in the past 10 years, many companies have all the firepower they will need...
...room to cut away. Why isn't the stock market responding now? "In the early innings of a weak economy there's always a battle between lower interest rates and falling corporate profits, and falling corporate profits always win," says Richard Bernstein, strategist at Merrill Lynch. In that respect, he says, there's nothing unusual about what's happening. Investors are focused on the bad news. Eventually, though, falling rates breathe life into an ailing economy--and into the stock market well in advance...