Word: macros
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...more macro way, Goldman and Morgan Stanley in particular were facing the equivalent of a bank run in September 2008, as fear-stricken hedge funds for which they were prime brokers pulled out their assets. The firms would have been toast if the government hadn't allowed them to become bank holding companies overnight, giving them access to almost unlimited funds that the Federal Reserve makes available to banks...
Levitt likes his timing, since he sees macro as something of a dead end. "The problems of the macroeconomy are just so hard and the degree of complexity so immense that it's almost hopeless to think that we would have really good models of those systems," he says, chatting at his house a few blocks from the University of Chicago, where he teaches. (A video of the interview is at time.com/levitt.) Aside from the complexity, there's a crucial data limitation. "We have one macroeconomy," Levitt explains. "We get to watch the world unfold once." That means...
...Levitt has spent his career looking for narrow subjects that lend themselves to empirical testing. His standard line is that he's not smart enough for macro. But he's been smart enough to avoid it - and to win, in 2003, the John Bates Clark Medal, an award for the top under-40 American economist that is often the precursor to a Nobel (no, he's not really a "rogue economist"). His work also caught writer Dubner's attention, which led to the 2003 article in the New York Times Magazine that spawned Freakonomics...
...central bank and its execution of a coherent monetary policy. Asia's rural-urban dichotomy also creates a natural fragmentation to its social and economic fabric - underscoring ever widening income and educational disparities that remain a major source of instability in the region. Widespread corruption further complicates the macro implementation of Asia's development imperatives. The more the region matures and makes further progress on the road to economic development, the greater the need for improved macro coordination...
...warning of the precarious state of the Chinese economy, Wen was expressing concerns about the nation's very risky macro bet. With nearly 80% of its GDP going to exports and fixed investment, China had become overly reliant on cross-border trade and on the investments required to support the logistics and capacity of its increasingly powerful export machine. Not only has China slowed dramatically - with export growth turning sharply negative in late 2008 and industrial output growth slipping into the low single digits - but the rest of an increasingly China-centric Asian economy has been quick to follow...