Word: mahdy
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...month cease-fire that Moqtada al-Sadr called in August 2007 is set to expire at the end of February. Observers believe the freeze in operations of his Mahdi Army is a major reason for the recent security successes in Iraq; and most expected it to be extended. But recently the Sadr camp has said that it might end the cease-fire. On January 18, a spokesman for Sadr in the religious capital of Najaf issued a statement warning that "the rationale for the decision to extend the freeze of the Mahdi Army is beginning to wear thin...
Satterfield is underrating the Mahdi Army's boss. I met Moqtada al-Sadr in November 2003 at his office down a narrow alleyway in Najaf. We sat on pillows on the floor and he answered my questions with short, perfunctory statements. Barely 30, he had a round face, broad shoulders and a habit of glaring at guests beneath his thick, black eyebrows. He came across as menacing yet dull. At the time, he was holding massive Friday-afternoon prayer rallies that he populated with poor workers bused in from the slums of Sadr City in Baghdad 100 miles...
...former Sunni insurgents have made common cause with the U.S., one of Iraq's largest Shi'ite factions has been eerily quiet. In late August, for reasons that are still a little mysterious, Muqtada al-Sadr ordered his Mahdi Army to desist from attacking U.S. forces. U.S. officials believe al-Sadr's move was less about helping the U.S. than about purging unruly elements from his 60,000-man militia. Another interpretation is that al-Sadr is simply waiting out the surge and that his fighters will return to the fray when U.S. troops have withdrawn. Whatever the reason, Odierno...
...armed, organized and funded by the Shi'ite-dominated Ministry of Interior, while the CLCs have the backing of the Americans. Not present are the Kurdish Pesh Merga (numbering 1,200 in Baghdad), Shi'ite strongman Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaish al-Mahd (JAM to U.S. soldiers, the Mahdi Army to most others), al-Qaeda in Iraq, the Badr corps (the Shi'ite militia that rivals al-Sadr's) and the Iraqi Army. The list goes...
Thus, in contrast to AQI, the Mahdi Army enters 2008 with its military capability and its base of support largely intact. If the political or military dynamic changes in 2008, the militia's leadership could just as easily choose to once again unleash its fighters. By mid-summer the surge will be over, and U.S. troop strength will be back where it was in late 2006. So, if the cease-fire does end, the U.S. will not be fighting with the 30,000 reinforcements that contributed to the gains of 2007. It will also face an adversary with strong support...