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...they will need to shrink their balance sheets by 10 times that figure - almost a trillion dollars - to maintain a constant ratio between their assets and capital. That suggests a drastic reduction of credit, since a bank's assets are its loans. Fewer loans mean tighter business conditions on Main Street. Your local car dealer won't be able to get the credit he needs to maintain his inventory of automobiles. To survive, he'll have to lay off some of his employees. Expect higher unemployment nationwide...
...likely to pass. But the world may still be heading for a severe downturn. Interbank lending remains stubbornly frozen, despite the Fed's liquidity fire hose. With WaMu and Wachovia wiped out, the stampede out of bank stocks and bonds will surely claim new victims. As the recession bites, Main Street firms will start going bust too. And the impact on the $62 trillion market for credit-default swaps could be explosive...
...have been getting such huge bonuses. These people, says Inslee, "are so outraged, they don't get past that." The second group comprises people who recognize the need to intervene to avert further financial calamity "but are absolutely outraged that we'd do something that is so inequitable to Main Street." This group, he says, is considerably larger than the first and wants a more balanced bill. Finally, Inslee says, there is a third group that "is in favor of doing anything because the situation is so dire. And his name is Bob." Inslee isn't being facetious...
...main fault line is a familiar one: illegal immigration. McCain and his allies in Arizona, including most of the state's congressional delegation (though it unanimously voted Monday against the Wall Street bailout plan pushed by McCain) and many of the state's leading business interests, favor a dual approach combining enforcement and a path to citizenship. The rambunctious populist wing of the state GOP, led in part by state representative Russell Pearce from Mesa, favors a much tougher stance of deportations first and foremost...
Does that mean you're feeling the credit crunch? Maybe not. But it might be an indication that the cracks on Main Street are spreading...