Word: mainlanders
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...even China seems to be acknowledging that it has to start to deal with Chen, whose new term of office lasts until 2008. The Chinese Foreign Ministry described his speech as "a sham," and in a statement released by the mainland's Taiwan Affairs Office earlier in the week, Beijing warned that if Taiwan's leaders took any steps toward independence, it would "crush their schemes firmly and thoroughly at any cost." But although it made them contingent on Chen's accepting Beijing's "one China" policy, the same statement also put forward seven points seemingly designed to put cross...
...Make no mistake, a China slowdown is approaching. Fueled by the excesses of bank lending, the mainland's runaway investment boom threatens balance and stability, and for many months authorities have been moving to bring the overheated economy under control. The objective of China's policymakers is to temper excesses by cooling the credit cycle. In recent weeks, Beijing has announced a number of administrative actions aimed at curtailing excess lending and rapid price increases at the provincial and local levels. I am convinced those actions will work and that China will experience a soft landing...
...asia's 1997 economic crisis painfully demonstrated, the region's export-centric growth model is not without pitfalls. While critical lessons have been learned from that wrenching period, Asia has lingering vulnerabilities. Two soft spots are likely to prove especially vexing: the region's dependence upon mainland China and the policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve. A looming slowdown in China's economy will undermine Asia's newest source of external demand, whereas the pending normalization of U.S. interest rates could convince American consumers, the region's oldest and most reliable source of external demand, to cut back on spending...
...even a soft landing will be felt around the region. The mainland's 40% import surge in 2003 was the spark that ignited Asia's nascent cyclical rebound. When China slows down?as it likely will within months?a chill will settle over Japan, Asia's newest recovery story. Surging exports to China accounted for 32% of total Japanese-export growth in 2003. Japanese capital spending is also being driven in a significant way by capacity expansion in those industries trading with China. With annual private-consumption growth remaining anemic at about 1.5%, Japan has very little cushion against...
...growth in 2003 is traceable to sales into China. Given the postbubble travails of Korean consumers, a deterioration in a key source of external growth could have a major impact domestically. Dramatic effects can also be expected in Taiwan and Hong Kong?economies that have become appendages of the mainland's production platform. A slowdown in China puts all that at risk. Meanwhile, in America, the drumbeat grows louder for a shift in U.S. monetary policy, presaging higher borrowing costs. With the American economy surging at a 5.5% average annual rate since mid-2003 and employment finally on the rise...