Word: marketeers
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...that a collapse of the U.S. banking system seems unlikely, stock-market watchers have found a new thing to worry about: rising interest rates. The yield on the government's 10-year Treasury bond is up 65% this year to a recent 3.83%. Says top Wall Street strategist Edward Yardeni, "If bond yields get up to 4.5%, so not much higher than they are now, I think we would see a real decline in mortgage refinancing, which would threaten the viability of the economic recovery." (Read "Economic Recovery: Will Corporate Profits Recoup...
...expand their businesses. According to Credit Suisse, the average yield on bonds with an investment-grade rating has dropped a full percentage point to 6.2% from 7.2% at the beginning of the year. "The concern that higher interest rates will slow the recovery is prevalent among a lot of market watchers, but it is not a concern of mine," says Carl Lantz, U.S. interest-rate strategist at Credit Suisse...
...loans to credit-card debt - as fast as they can, but the process is sure to take years, and until it is complete, the economy can't fully bounce back. "Even though we're probably past the worst in the business cycle and probably even in the bear market, we're talking about something much bigger here," says David Rosenberg, chief economist at money manager Gluskin Sheff. "The largest balance sheet in the world is the U.S. household balance sheet, and it's contracting at a record rate...
Still, it is likely to be a while before we hit that new normal. Rosenberg points out that during the Great Depression, the worst of GDP contraction and stock-market losses had hit by the early 1930s. And yet the malaise carried on for the rest of the decade. Unemployment hung above 15%, and people didn't spend money. "Even people who had the means didn't go on buying sprees. That's not how they lived," says Rosenberg. We may now be in for some of the same...
...possible - but few Americans are doing it. Toilet paper containing 100% recycled fiber makes up less than 2% of the U.S. market, while sales of three-ply luxury brands like Cottonelle Ultra and Charmin Ultra Soft shot up 40% in 2008. Compare the U.S. desire for an ever plusher flush with the more austere bathroom habits of Europe and Latin America, where recycled TP makes up about 20% of the at-home market. Recycled material simply can't match the level of comfort that virgin fiber provides - and that U.S. consumers have come to expect. "They...