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...gauges the options market's expectations of the 30-day volatility of the S&P 500 index. While the VIX has fallen from a high of over 80 last year to a new low under 23, it is still above its historical average of around 20. Eight years ago, after 9/11, it spiked to just over 40. Recently, stocks have reached new highs for the year, so a move down in the VIX is certainly reasonable. (Read "How to Know When the Economy Is Turning...
Traditionally, the VIX has been described as a "fear index": the higher the index, the greater the pessimism as investors fear market instability. Technically, it is a barometer of implied volatility over the next month, specifically calculated from options prices over the S&P 500's underlying stocks. Bearish put options, the right to sell a stock at a specified price in the future, generally dominate a high...
...Speculators OPEC leaders have repeatedly called for limits on speculation in oil-futures markets, in which investors bet on which way oil prices will go. Oil officials blame speculators for volatile prices, and some financial analysts agree. "It is market psychology which is propping up prices," Morse says. If investors believe that the recession is near an end and that demand will soar, they could pour money into oil futures and drive up world prices. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington is weighing new rules that would limit how much money a hedge fund or investor can trade...
...market recovery built on a good foundation, or are we looking at a house of cards? One clue lies in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, more commonly known...
Volatility is almost universally misunderstood: that one number can imply any number of market conditions, all of which mean different things to different investors. That's because volatility assumes stocks prices move in a certain way, but this model is limited and unrealistic. Put options are used to hedge against big downward swings in prices, which are a very specific face of high volatility...