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...summer months since 1994 have tended to show weakening performance as the summer wears on. We believe this has to do with an increasing trend toward longer summer vacations among the Wall Street set. Also, we are a global market today, and lengthy summer vacations are popular in many corners of the world...
...this summer the stock market has rallied. Precisely, and that goes against the seasonal pattern that has been in effect. If you go back and look at other times when that has happened in the last 15 years - a positive stock market during the summer - the results show that the stock market also has a positive September and keeps strengthening throughout the rest of the year. (Read "Bernie Madoff's Other Legacy...
...there's good seasonal karma right through December? In this seasonal scenario, December actually turns in the strongest performance, on average. There's a bit of seasonality to that too, since in a rising market you will typically see mutual-fund managers rush to add hot stocks to their portfolio at the end of the year so it shows up in their portfolio statements. There's much more performance pressure on money managers today than there used...
...some researchers feel the data are now convincing enough to spur large policy changes. The Lancet study, for example, found that investment in active labor-market programs like welfare-to-work reduces the effect of unemployment on suicide rates. This link is displayed in Scandinavian countries with strong welfare programs. Finland, for example, saw suicide rates drop steadily between 1990 and 1993 despite a 13% rise in unemployment. Sweden saw a drop in suicides during a recession in 1992. "What we found was that when spending on active labor-market programs exceeded $190 per head per year, rises in unemployment...
...again exposed the structural weaknesses that plague Japan: overdependence on exports to drive economic growth, anemic domestic demand, inefficient enterprises and barriers to competition. It's no secret that the root of all of these problems is demographics. An aging population is shrinking Japan's labor force and consumer market. The country's working-age population (aged 15 and over) has declined 2% since 1999. Over the same period, the number of workers aged 65 and up expanded 19%, while the labor force of workers aged 25 to 34 shrank 9%. (Read "Japan: Stimulating the World Markets...