Word: markovian
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...hoping to see second and third with one out,” Morris says as Cardinals leadoff hitter Fernando Viña grounds out to shortstop, “because something comes out in Markovian theory that’s very interesting. When the third-base runner sees the ball hit on the ground to second base, he has to make an instinctive calculation whether try for home. The question is, what is the probability he will score that would justify going? If it’s greater than 7 percent”—he pauses to emphasize...
Unlike the statistics that appear on the back of a baseball card, which are either counting (total home runs or wins) or percentage (batting average or slugging percentage), Morris’s formula was derived from a technique in academic statistics known as Markovian modeling, which he says makes it qualitatively different from any statistic a casual fan would be familiar with. RPG, Morris says, takes much of the interpretation out of statistics (different fans may value on-base percentage or RBI differently, and sabermetricians frequently assign debatable weights to statistics such as stolen bases) and says with statistical certainty...
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