Word: martinisms
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Some political observers think Tuesday's Senate runoff in Georgia is a big deal because a victory by underdog Jim Martin over incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss would keep alive the Democratic Party's dreams of a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority to move its agenda successfully through the Senate. Other experts see the race as a big deal for the opposite reason; Democrats with that majority as well as control of the House and White House could overreach, leading to a conservative backlash...
...really, there's no such thing as a "filibuster-proof 60-seat majority," even if Martin pulls off an upset and Al Franken wins his recount against Republican Norm Coleman in Minnesota and Joe Lieberman still counts as a Democrat. Senators don't always vote in partisan lockstep; President Barack Obama could succeed in recruiting Republicans on some issues with a 58-seat Democratic majority, and he could find himself stymied by defections on some issues with a 62-seat Democratic majority. In the Senate, even one determined naysayer is capable of grinding the institution to a halt...
...that's why the Martin-Chambliss race actually is a big deal: Chambliss is a textbook Bush-Cheney Republican - and every vote counts. Sixty seats would be better for the Democrats than 59, which would be better for the Democrats than 58. Six years is also a long time. In fact, Georgia is still an extremely conservative state, so if Chambliss can win at a time when the Republican Party is at its lowest ebb, he can probably hold his seat as long as he wants - which would be good news for Bush-style Republicans and bad news for Obama...
...other hand, a Martin surprise in this deep-red state would be a crowning embarrassment for the GOP. It would rival Obama's own victory as a repudiation of the Bush agenda of tax cuts for the rich, pork for the well-connected, belt-tightening for the working poor, drill-baby-drill, strict-construction judges and military adventurism - not to mention the political cynicism that made Chambliss notorious after his ads in 2002 comparing his opponent, triple-amputee Max Cleland, to Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein...
...Special elections can have quirky results, and pollsters say the runoff will come down to turnout. But all elections come down to turnout, and it's hard to see the path to victory for Martin, a mild-mannered former state legislator and human-resources commissioner who is unusually progressive for a statewide candidate in Georgia. Chambliss narrowly missed an outright majority in November, pulling in 49.8% to Martin's 46.8%, and black Democrats who turned out in record numbers to support Obama didn't vote early for Martin in similar numbers. John McCain and Sarah Palin both returned to Georgia...