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...that way, Hatoyama's new foreign policy may be simply acknowledging the changing global balance of power. "Everyone understands that Japan's foreign policy is going to have to accommodate China," says Smith, of the Council on Foreign Relations. "Japan lives right next door." But that fact will also make it difficult for Japan to drift too far from its close alliance with the U.S. Hatoyama "is trying to move Japan closer to Asia to get more autonomy from the U.S.," explains Ellis Krauss, a professor of Japanese politics at the University of California at San Diego. But Japan...
...Waal, program director at the Social Science Research Council in New York City, and author of several books on Sudan, have argued the indictment was cathartic but counterproductive. It offered Bashir no chance to compromise, they said, while making him a champion of anti-Western defiance. Those views may have found traction inside the White House of Obama, who has favored mixing carrots with sticks and made a preference for engagement over confrontation a cornerstone of his foreign policy. On Oct. 19, Obama outlined a Sudan strategy that encapsulated this new U.S. approach to world affairs. Under it, the usual...
...popular leader and his need to raise his standing before April's vote persuaded him in February to agree to a cease-fire with the more Islamist of the Darfur rebels (and Chad, which supports them) in return for their support. The largest group, the Justice and Equality Movement, may even end up with Cabinet seats. In the south, the approaching referendum also seems to have convinced Bashir to accept the possibility that twice provoked the north to war. "If the result of the referendum is separation," he said in a speech in the south in January, "the Khartoum government...
...might be defused. The south's Minister for Presidential Affairs, Luka Biong Deng, told TIME in February his government would continue splitting oil revenue with Khartoum after independence. Given half a century of hostility and intransigence between the two sides, Gration calls such cooperation "phenomenal." (Read: "Sudan Votes May Spark Progress, Peace for Darfur...
...ready when it got independence," notes Carter. Gressly argues South Sudan doesn't have to be fully formed at first, particularly if the global mission to build it continues, as he expects, for "10 to 15 to 20 years." And despite the World Bank holdup, there is progress. Juba may not look like much, but at least it looks like something. "There used to be nothing," says Itto. Some point to the Carter Center's spectacular recent advances in its fight against Guinea worm, a potentially lethal parasite carried by water, as proof, as Carter says, "that success is possible...