Word: mbeki
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...nation Commonwealth's punitive suspension of Zimbabwe is unlikely to force any dramatic changes. Mugabe's Minister of State for Information, Jonathan Moyo, described it as "meaningless." For Mugabe, the Common-wealth move - recommended by South Africa's Thabo Mbeki, Nigeria's Olusegun Obasanjo and Australia's John Howard - conveniently averted the possibility of further sanctions from Commonwealth members such as Britain, Canada and Australia. The European Union and the United States have drawn up "smart" sanctions, which would include a travel ban on Mugabe and senior members of his ZANU-PF party and a freeze on their assets abroad...
Although Tsvangirai welcomed the Commonwealth action as a message to Mugabe that his "wayward behavior" was unacceptable, he said he would be happier if the regional Southern African Development Community suspended Zimbabwe as well. But local leaders, in particular South Africa's Mbeki, are concerned that isolating Mugabe would increase regional instability...
Although he was a member of the Commonwealth troika that recommended censuring Mugabe, Mbeki and his ruling African National Congress accepted Zimbabwe's election results as legitimate. Mbeki's ambivalence amounts to a compromise that probably averted a split between African and non-African members of the Commonwealth...
With bans and restrictions by Mugabe on British and European Union observers, the report on the election by the South African team will become an important assessment of "free and fair." And pressure is building on Mbeki not only from Britain, the Commonwealth and the European Union, but also from SADC and other African leaders who, in keeping with the NEPAD principles, are anxious to establish their continental credibility. That will make it difficult for the South African observers to come up with a whitewash, as they did in Zimbabwe's 2000 general election...
Whatever the result, Mbeki will not act hurriedly. The least that can be expected is that, if Mugabe is returned, even under dubious circumstances, Mbeki will continue his quiet diplomacy, and he and other African leaders from the nepad initiative will maintain their steady pressure. That, more than hectoring from abroad, might even persuade Zimbabwe's head of state - one of the last of the colonial-era African nationalists - that a graceful retirement while in power is a better option than being censured out of office by his African peers...