Word: mcgirk
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...Although Fujimori is ahead in the polls right now, Toledo is closing the gap and the president fears that postponing the election will allow Toledo's momentum to carry him to victory," says TIME Latin America bureau chief Tim McGirk. "But Fujimori is in a real jam, because if he doesn't postpone the election in line with guidelines laid down by the OAS monitoring group with the support of the Clinton administration, he runs the risk that the election result will be declared invalid and force the OAS and Washington to impose sanctions on Peru...
...reining in hyperinflation. "Despite its previous support of Fujimori, the U.S. has become concerned that he has, over the past year, resorted to increasingly populist and authoritarian measures to ensure that he stays in power, including rewriting the constitution to allow himself a third term in office," says McGirk. "So a lot of the goodwill he earned over eight years has drained away, both in Washington and among Peruvians themselves." Indeed, there is very little difference between Fujimori and his challenger on economic policy, although Toledo is promising political reforms. But Toledo's withdrawal strips the runoff election...
...dismissed the constitutional court judges who demurred. But despite the strong public support he won in the early '90s for reining in inflation and facing down two leftist guerrilla insurgencies, many voters have turned against Fujimori. "The economy is stagnating with some 60 percent underemployment in urban areas," says McGirk. "After Fujimori's 10 years in power, many people think he has run out of steam...
...also have an advantage in his own rags-to-riches story. Some 45 percent of Peru's 25 million people are Indian, and a further 37 percent are of Mestizo (mixed) heritage. "Peru's politics have traditionally pitched a white oligarchy against the indigenous and Mestizo masses," says McGirk. "But Fujimori wasn't a member of the traditional elite, either. In the end, it may be a combination of Toledo's impoverished background and the fact that he's a respected economist that gives voters hope that he'll be able to understand their problems and help them...
...worked assiduously for years to cultivate support among the generals, but even there, his leadership style may have alienated important elements. "Fujimori put his intelligence chief, Vladimir Montesinos, in charge of the military, and Montesinos has, in turn, put his own cronies in charge of the different branches," says McGirk. "But Montesinos was dishonorably discharged from Peru's army in the '70s for selling secrets to the U.S., and there's considerable resentment against him in the officer corps. And Toledo's not exactly a fire-breathing leftist, so rather than weigh in behind Fujimori, this time the military...