Word: medlocke
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...want instead to inoculate the people likeliest to spread it. After all, even the most at-risk among us can't get sick with a virus we never come in contact with. "If you can stop transmission, you can protect the people who are vulnerable," says Jan Medlock, a mathematician at Clemson University and one of the authors of the Science paper...
...Medlock and co-author Alison Galvani of Yale University School of Medicine studied mortality data and data of infectious contacts from the influenza pandemics of 1918 and 1957. They then built a mathematical model to determine the best distribution by age for vaccinations, in order to contain the spread of a theoretical pandemic. In their calculations, the most effective policy was to aim first for inoculating children ages 5 to 19 and adults ages 30 to 39. That's because school-age children are such a powerful nexus of flu infection: they get sick, infect one another in the close...
...people who still aren't immune. The Science study offers a chance to get a kind of herd immunity on the cheap by inoculating the super-spreaders first. "As long as there are more than 40 million doses of vaccine, this looks like the best way to go," says Medlock...
...guzzling vehicles have collapsed. If we see that kind of change it becomes a much longer term issue with long-term demand destruction." In the short term, there's simple math. The average driver goes about 12,000 miles a year at 20 miles per gallon, says Ken Medlock, an Energy Fellow at the Baker Institute at Rice University in Houston, Texas. If gasoline drops $1.50 the $900 that Joe Average Driver saves would amount to a big stimulus package. According to Ed Leamer, director of the UCLA's Anderson Forecast, the current price slide could drop another...
...pegged at $90/bbl for 2008 last month, but he can easily see $50/bbl if there's a global recession. That could be more welcome news for drivers next year. "That's where you could see people use that disposable income to do things like go on vacation," says Medlock. That's assuming they have a job to get away from. But one thing low oil prices can't do is get the U.S. out of its credit crisis...