Word: meiers
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...destroy guerrilla forces. The rebels have long maintained that their game plan was always to withdraw from Grozny after making the Russians pay a heavy price for the city - which they've certainly done. "This is less a retreat than a tactical maneuver," says TIME Moscow correspondent Andrew Meier. "The Chechens were always planning to retreat from Grozny on their own terms. Now the Russians will try to hold it, while the Chechens regroup and prepare for partisan strikes, hoping to repeat the scenario of August 1996 when they recaptured the city after their last retreat...
...decision to treat all Chechen men as potential enemies - further diminishes Moscow's hopes of finding any significant support in the Chechen population. "In the first war Moscow set up 'filtration camps' to ostensibly separate civilians from militants, and there were widespread reports of torture and beatings," says Meier. "Now the Chechen population fears the Russians are planning the same thing all over again." Frustration may prompt Russia to pursue more brutal and indiscriminate measures, which makes it more likely that the Chechen population will become alienated from Russian forces rather than from the guerrillas - in other words, the waters...
...last weekend's Chechen successes. That, together with a cacophony of mixed signals from the Kremlin over how to conduct the campaign, will further sap the already diminished morale of the Russian forces. And Russia's economic woes continue to have an impact on the situation. Says Meier, "There are still stories appearing in the media every week of Russian officers in Chechnya selling weapons to the enemy...
...support for the war effort is crucial to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's efforts to use Chechnya as a stepping-stone to the presidency in the March election. Right now, it's holding steady. "Polls reflect that Russians still strongly support the war despite rising concern over setbacks," says Meier...
...which they swim, the art of counterinsurgency is to poison the water by turning civilians against the guerrillas. And Russia had reason for optimism going into the campaign. "Many Chechens are opposed to the Islamic militants like Shamil Basayev and Khattab, who the Russians claim to be targeting," says Meier. "Even more may have been prepared to support Russia in the short term, if only to put an end to war and chaos." That much was clear from the interventions, in some towns, of local elders to persuade the Chechen fighters to withdraw in order to end Russian bombardment...