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Should you buy the stock today? Look at it this way. Since antitrust first surfaced as an issue for Microsoft in 1990, the stock has fallen 10% or more 21 times, according to researchers Birinyi Associates. The average dip was 17% and lasted slightly more than a month. The average recovery was 47% the ensuing four months. On average, an investor who bought at the worst moment (the day before one of those declines) got even in six months--and has shared in Microsoft's glory ever since. The stock has doubled three times in the past four years. Microsoft...
Still, my temperament is more cautious. I'd hold Microsoft but wouldn't buy more just yet. The continuing investigation could push the stock lower than its $85 9/16 at Friday's close. I'd buy if it dropped to about $77. As for Microsoft's sworn enemies, Sun Microsystems (workstations) and Oracle (software) are already good long-term buys and, if things go badly for Microsoft, will do marginally better. But browser company Netscape and PC networker Novell are roadkill. It rarely pays to bet on a tech turnaround. Better to just pay your respects and move...
...antitrust suit against Microsoft shows anything, it's that nobody has a monopoly on analogies. Both sides in the complicated legal case filed last week have latched on to similes and metaphors to make their positions clear. But do they work? Maybe up to a point...
METAPHOR BILL GATES: "Forcing Microsoft to include Netscape's competing software in our operating system is like requiring Coca-Cola to include three cans of Pepsi in every six-pack it sells...
...Yeah but...] ...at least the Windows user can stick the Microsoft browser in the trash and download Netscape...