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Even with averaging, though, forecasts can still be wildly disappointing - as the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters shows. In mid-February, the economists collectively predicted a second-quarter unemployment rate of 8.3%. The difference between that and the actual figure, 9.3%, translates into 1.5 million more people unemployed...
...White House never told the CIA why it panicked, at least as far as I know. But I do know that the Administration was living with the collective memory of the Church Committee hearings. In the mid-1970s, a Senate committee chaired by Frank Church hammered the CIA for its attempted assassinations of foreign leaders, including Fidel Castro. During the worst of it, the CIA wondered if it would survive. It did. But it was saddled with an order prohibiting assassination, and in 1981 Ronald Reagan amended it as Executive Order 12333. In the CIA, that was the closest thing...
...Jared Bernstein, went on to land key jobs in the Obama Administration. Romer is the head of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, and Bernstein is the chief economist and economic-policy adviser to Vice President Joe Biden. And the stimulus bill that both economists championed became law in mid-February. What has not come to pass, however, is the boom in job creation that Romer and Bernstein predicted. A little over a month ago, the Administration said the stimulus bill had created or saved 150,000 jobs. That's a far cry from the 3 million to 4 million...
Russia, to be sure, is not entirely dependent on a U.S. endorsement to feel important. In mid-June, it hosted two summits in the Ural city of Yekaterinburg: one with members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (which includes China and four Central Asian republics, as well as observer states India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan) and the other with leaders of the so-called BRIC nations - Brazil, Russia, India and China. Medvedev was the first foreign leader to receive Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, after his controversial re-election. (See pictures of the aftermath of Iran's election...
...although outside forecasters don't quite buy it. Let's call these three countries the BICs. BRIC - for Brazil, Russia, India, China - is the better-known acronym, coined in 2001 by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O'Neill as shorthand for the globe's emerging economic giants. In mid-June, leaders of the four BRICs even held their first summit meeting. But Russia, a resource-rich land with an otherwise feeble economy and a shrinking population, is in a different boat from its BRIC brethren. It's having a horrible year, with the World Bank predicting that its GDP will...