Word: midyears
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...disquieting thing is that the prospective date for the upturn keeps getting pushed back. The Reagan Administration first predicted that recovery would begin shortly after the start of 1982, then in the spring. Now the prevailing opinion among forecasters, both in the Government and private business, is midyear, and there are loud dissents. Robert Farrell, the leading stock watcher for Merrill Lynch, biggest of all brokerage firms, asserts bluntly: "The consensus that has the economy up in midyear and up in 1983 is wrong." Many investors appear to share his apprehension. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 17 points last...
...borrows about 35% of all the lendable funds in the country. Henry Kaufman, chief economist of the investment banking firm of Salomon Bros., predicts that as a rising deficit bumps up against the borrowing demands of businesses and individuals, "the downward trend of interest rates will probably reverse before midyear, and in the second half, long-term rates will once again threaten their peaks of 1981." Worse, there are widespread fears that the actual deficit will soar beyond Reagan's projections of $98.6 billion this fiscal year and $91.5 billion in fiscal 1983. Alice Rivlin, Congressional Budget Office director, last...
...this year, you know the women play a fast and clean version of hockey. Coach John Dooley's players may never make the Montreal Canadiens, but this season they've been skating and headmanning the puck past most of their opponents while setting a 6-5 record, the best midyear mark in the team's short history...
...rose only 8.9%, the lowest increase since 1977. But the main cause of the moderation was the current recession, rather than the hoped for increases in productivity and growth. Yes, interest rates are somewhat lower, but they remain at investment-strangling levels and could easily thwart the midyear recovery that economists have predicted. And looming over the program of the man who for years rode the rubber chicken circuit decrying unbalanced budgets are projected record deficits-the total for the next three years exceeds a shocking $300 billion...
Nonetheless, the consensus outlook shows the economy continuing to decline into early next year, and then picking up at about midyear. Preliminary Government figures released last week showed business declining at a steep annual rate of 5.4% in the fourth quarter. TIME'S board predicted that the pace of the slump will slow to 2.2% during the first three months of 1982. Then, by the second quarter of the year, the plunge should have leveled off, with no more than about 0.2% of decline in G.N.P. In the second half of the year, the economy is expected to snap...