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...consumers spent about $10 trillion in 2008. By contrast, although China and India collectively account for nearly 40% of the world's population, their combined consumption was only about $2.5 trillion in 2008. During the boom, China and the rest of Asia reaped enormous benefits from a mercantilist growth model that was tied increasingly to the voracious appetite of the American consumer. Unfortunately, Asia did not do a good job in hedging that bet. The U.S. could now be in the early stages of a multiyear consumption retrenchment, making the problems of an unbalanced, export-dependent Asian economy even more...
...blocs at the provincial and local level. And his concerns over sustainability were specifically aimed at pollution and environmental degradation - unmistakably negative externalities of China's fixation on open-ended, manufacturing-led economic growth. To the extent that the Chinese experience is a microcosm of the broader Asian development model, Wen's "four uns" are very much a blueprint of what it will take to realize the aspirations of the Asian Century. Just as the financial crisis of the late 1990s was a wake-up call for the region to put its financial house in order, the global crisis...
...Heightened efforts in the area of resource efficiency are also an urgent priority. A shift from manufacturing-led export growth to more of a services-based consumption model will relieve some of the inherent biases of energy- and resource-intensive growth. But Asia must do more in the way of investing in alternative energy technologies, retrofitting existing production platforms and moving to lighter construction and production techniques. Air and water pollution have become endemic to Asia's hypergrowth. That's especially true in China, home to seven of the 10 most polluted cities in the world and whose level...
...crisis of the late 1990s. But, as they say in the investment business, a track record of success is no guarantee of future performance. The current global recession is an important wake-up call for Asia - a not-so-subtle hint to find a new recipe for its growth model. The Next Asia that emerges from this transition will need to be all about a shift in focus from the quantity to the quality of the growth experience. Although the quality of economic growth is something of an amorphous construct, its attributes are undoubtedly steeped in better balance, stability, coordination...
...Change is never easy - especially on a scale that the Next Asia requires. But change has been at the core of all the Asian miracles of the post - World War II era. Once again, circumstances require this dynamic region to look inside itself and reinvent the model that will take it to the next phase of its remarkable journey. I remain confident that Asia will be able to pull it off. At the same time, I don't underestimate the risks that the Next Asia will face as it once again moves out of its comfort zone. That's something...