Word: momentum
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...This year is something different," says Patrick Kenney, chairman of the political science department at Arizona State University, and an expert on the subject of political momentum - what it is and how it works. "Twice before, Obama appeared to have the momentum in a traditional sense, coming out of Iowa and coming out of South Carolina. In both cases he ran into an incredibly experienced and well-financed campaign led by a candidate with high name-recognition and great resilience...
...After Tuesday night's results, many observers will be tempted to declare that his current momentum is different, and that Obama is now truly unstoppable. In Virginia, Obama won around 64% of the vote, doing especially well not just with his expected bases of independents, young voters and African-Americans, but also besting Clinton at the segments touted as her strengths - older and blue-collar voters, and even women. His performance in Maryland, where he took around 60% of the vote, was equally impressive and broad-based...
...Momentum is most powerful, according to political scientists, when the field is fairly evenly matched. Imagine a group of a half-dozen or so candidates, each with a mix of strengths and weaknesses - the 2004 Democratic field, for example. Most of the country knows relatively little about any of them until the first contests. If one candidate appears to be surging in Iowa and New Hampshire, that success becomes a settled and powerful reality in the minds of voters in later states. Success breeds more success. That's how John Kerry...
...When there is a strong front-runner, momentum is less decisive. Gary Hart discovered this in 1984. He surged out of Iowa and New Hampshire only to break his spear on the front-running campaign of Walter Mondale...
...Though Obama is far stronger than Hart ever was, he remains wary of putting his faith in the power of momentum. "We certainly don't factor momentum into any of our calculations," said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, on Tuesday afternoon. "We obviously did well on Saturday and Sunday but we don't think that has much relevance to what happens in the Mid-Atlantic. And whatever happens [in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia] is not going to have much impact in Wisconsin or Hawaii [next Tuesday...