Word: montanas
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...apparently scaling back its outsized electoral ambitions. It has already shifted staff, abandoning some states and putting others on notice. If it once technically played in all 50, it's now down to 48 - you can cross Alaska and North Dakota off the list - and two other states, Montana and Georgia, are on life support. The choice of Palin not only crushed Obama's hope of winning the Frontier State - his campaign has withdrawn most of its staff and ceased advertising there - but it also caused repercussions in North Dakota, another hockey-crazed northern state where snow-mobile racing...
...Another state in which Palin's down-home, conservative appeal may be having an effect is Montana, where Obama also recently decreased his advertising budget by 50%. Although Obama approached - and in a few polls, even led - McCain in surveys of North Dakota and Montana over the summer, when Obama was the only candidate advertising there, he now trails McCain by double digits in those states. Real Clear Politics, a nonpartisan website that tracks the campaign, recently moved both states into the "solid McCain" column. Still, the campaign is taking a wait-and-see approach in Montana as staff...
...Although his enormous fund-raising still gives Obama more routes to the White House than McCain, the contracting playing field does narrow the Democrat's potential paths to the presidency. Now that a northern front - including Alaska, Montana and North Dakota - looks out of reach, Obama has four central ways...
...state level, the percentages are even higher. Early voting accounted for almost 30% of Montana ballots in 2006 and 34% of votes in the state's primary this June. In Colorado, county clerks estimate that almost half of active voters in this year's general election will vote before Election Day; in some particularly competitive counties, as many as 60% are expected to vote at early-voting centers...
...Virginia is one of 10 states, including Ohio, Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Florida, Colorado, Montana and North Dakota, that went for President George W. Bush in 2004 but which the Obama campaign believes will be among the most closely contested in November. "Those, plus New Hampshire and Wisconsin, are going to be the toughest till the end," predicts Steve Hildebrand, the man in charge of Obama's ground game...