Word: moqtada
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...those were just the major incidents. U.S. casualties have risen every month since the June hand-over of political authority to the interim government of prime minister Iyad Allawi, and the pattern of confrontation is not encouraging. In April, the U.S. military fought insurgents in Fallujah, then battled Moqtada Sadr's men in Najaf in June. The U.S. returned there in August for a second, inconclusive battle and then, in September, found itself once again bombing Fallujah in preparation for another frontal assault. The Sadrists have also created flashpoints in Basra, Nasiriya, Karbala, Samawa, Kut and elsewhere throughout the Shiite...
...which the training of Iraqi forces can transform the situation. Military training involves imparting combat skills and organizational discipline to create efficient fighting units with high levels of morale and confidence. By measure of basic combat skills and organization, the Iraqi security forces may already be substantially superior to Moqtada Sadr's rag-tag Mehdi army, which is composed largely of unemployed young toughs from the Shiite urban ghettoes. The difference between them on the battlefield, however, is based on morale and confidence - in other words, on motivation. The Sadrists are motivated by a strong nationalist sentiment and emboldened...
...More importantly, Sadr has called on his own supporters - most of whom hail not from Najaf, but from the urban Shiite neighborhoods of Baghdad, Basra and the cities in between - to answer Sistani's call and make for Najaf. Ever alert to the political opportunity, Moqtada Sadr appears intent on making sure he emerges from the siege looking not only victorious, but also in lockstep with Sistani and the Shiite clerical mainstream...
...defeated militarily. Reports from the frontline leave no doubt that U.S. and Iraqi forces were closing in on the shrine, while many Sadrist fighters had already fled. But their "defense" of the most revered of Shiite shrines under fire from a widely loathed "infidel" army has further enhanced Moqtada Sadr's already considerable political standing among Iraqi Shiites - a fact that has led the interim government to stress that even after three weeks of violent defiance, it wants to draw Sadr into the political process, for the simple reason that he's too dangerous to them outside. Indeed, the government...
...fact that Sistani has scrupulously avoided publicly condemning Moqtada or endorsing government action against him is telling. It's well known that Sistani neither likes nor respects Moqtada, but he also recognizes that Moqtada has a considerable following among his own flock. And it will be plain for Sistani to see that his own position has weakened in the course of the siege, a widespread perception that he absented himself at Najaf's time of need. Sadr's rise has challenged the prevailing Shiite clerical order in Iraq in the way that Ayatollah Khomeini did in Iran 25 years...