Word: moqtada
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...influence commensurate with their numbers over Iraq's destiny. They're likely to resist any effort to postpone a poll, particularly because Sistani and the parties close to him are under pressure among ordinary Shi'ites as a result of the challenge of the more radical element led by Moqtada Sadr. If elections are held on schedule, he'll feel his caution was vindicated. If there's a delay, Sistani will be caught between pressure to act and a fear that the path of confrontation could bring protracted chaos and result in the breakup of Iraq...
...AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/GETTY IMAGES Moqtada Sadr...
...Radicals The Players: Although there are a number of smaller players at the radical end of the Shi'ite political spectrum, the key radical leader is Moqtada Sadr, whose support base in the Shi'ite urban slums has been organized in the Mehdi militia, which has been skirmishing with Coalition troops since the U.S. first tried to arrest Sadr in April on murder charges. While Moqtada lacks the clerical status to compete with Sistani in the religious sphere, he is first and foremost a politician - while purporting to accept Sistani's leadership in the spiritual sphere, Moqtada is plainly competing...
...Script: Moqtada Sadr not only wants the Shi'ites to dominate in the new political order in Iraq; he plans to be the dominant voice among the Shi'ites - and has skillfully ridden the wave of anti-American anger triggered by U.S. efforts against him to his own advantage. Indeed, the fact that Sistani held a meeting with Moqtada, whom he would previously have dismissed as an upstart rabble-rouser, to help bring peace to Najaf is a sign that the young imam's stature has grown as a result of his battle with the Americans. Sadr's game plan...
...Challenge: Moqtada Sadr has managed in the course of his confrontation with the U.S. to build up himself a substantial standing within the Shi'ite body politic, and he now appears to be consolidating that standing by proclaiming himself ready to work with the new government in pursuit of elections. His future depends on his ability to maintain and consolidate his support by acting as much as possible in concert with Sistani and the mainstream. But it's a safe bet that he'll be the first and loudest among the Shi'ites crying foul in the event...