Word: morings
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Meanwhile, the models are losing focus, struggling through moves they clearly haven’t learned yet. El-Hage is not impressed. “The show’s one week away,” she scolds. “You should be able to do it on your...
The conversation finished with a discussion of poster duties. Doing it alone is a chore, it is decided, but with other people it’s much more fun and much more reliably finished. Predictable.
There are those who still insist on rational expectations theories and EMH as the best predictors of human and market behavior. Put simply, their point is that mistakes may be made, but economics as a field can only be useful with mathematical modeling as the central pillar of analysis. Based...
The first is closely related to a philosophical idea popularized by Soros himself: reflexivity. Originally developed as a sociological concept, reflexivity incorporates the essential feedback loop between cause and effect into analysis. This is best illustrated through self-fulfilling prophecies; think about a bank run à la Northern Rock...
Considering these essential shortcomings, what is most surprising is that we still trust our models so much. The fact that the mirage of certainty has crept from economics into other disciplines is obvious enough: A famous Harvard government professor often complains that no data-heavy, model-driven graduate student gets...