Word: mortgagees
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Bach expects the jobless rate to top the 10% mark, office rents to plunge another 5% to 10% and vacancies in commercial real estate to exceed 20% by the middle of 2010 - surpassing the 18% vacancy peak hit during the early 1990s crisis. The doom-and-gloom scenario will likely...
And there will be plenty to buy. "There's probably a lot of financial institutions that hold mortgage debt today that just can't hold it long-term and will eventually have to be sellers, whether it's regional banks or major financial institutions that need to deleverage," says Greg...
First, if a tsunami of private-equity players and REITs jump into the sector, competition for assets will heat up, which could drive prices up. If this happens, potential profits will shrink, says Tom Fink, senior vice president of Trepp LLC, a commercial-mortgage-research firm.
Second, pricing the asset right is tricky. If real estate fundamentals continue to deteriorate over an extended period of time, more loans will go into default and the value of the mortgage securities will decline further. This could cause problems for entities that overpay. "If you buy a mortgage at...
So far, investors have been cautious on the group, giving only lukewarm receptions to four entities that recently went public in the sector: PennyMac raised only $335 million in its IPO - less than half of the $750 million it had expected - and its stock fell below its opening price after...