Word: mubarak
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Isolated after the agreement with Israel, Egypt under Mubarak has actively sought a rapprochement with the rest of the Arab world. The reason is partly financial--without investment from these off-rich nations, economic development will remain difficult, if not impossible. While carefully vowing to uphold Sadat's commitments, Mubarak used the Israeli invention of Lebenon last summer as a pretest to a recal his ambassador from [arme] and attacked Prime Minister Begin for "sounding the drums of war and flexing the muscles of tyrannous force." Though Libya and Syria remain of to Mubarak's overtures, Soudi Arabia, Jordan...
Only by reestablishing a relationship with the Soviet Union can Mubarak effectively complete the betrayal of Sadat's mission. Official rhetoric about "non-alignment," an old favorite of Nasser's back in the 1960s, has reappeared and would seem to signal an impending change in policy. Thus in a recent article in Foreign Affairs, an Egyptian diplomat called for "a positive and constructive Soviet contribution to the peace efforts, especially in regard to the framework of Camp David" and added that his country "would like nothing more than to turn a new page and establish friendly relations with the Soviet...
...strategically on the suex Conel, has always been considered a hey to the success of military operations in the region; the assurance even of Egyptian neutrality in the event of American intervention over control of the oilfields of the Gulf States would greatly control the Soviet high command. Now Mubarak wants to perform a dangerous balancing act between the two superpowers, accepting $2 billion in American aid last year and then a few months later turning to Moncow for whatever extra...
What he may not yet realize is that the Soviets will be tough to remove a second time--especially if they succeed in undermining Mubarak's credibility with the West, forcing him or some shaky successor to embrace his Russian guests as the only viable alternative for support. Worse, Mubarak's unpredictability may exacerbate Israeli fears. The Begin government has consistently warned that it will never tolerate the existence of an independent Palestinian state armed to the teeth with Soviet weapons. Direct Soviet influence in Egypt, until now not considered a factor, would lend immediacy to the Israeli argument...
...Egyptian president, like the Sphinx before him, remains enigmatic. Caught between the embarrassment of inaction during the Lebanese crisis and his endorsement of Camp David, Mubarak now clearly believes that close association with the United States is more a liability than an asset in helping reestablish Egyptian influence among the Arab nations. But whether he will risk all and gamble beyond just an exchange of ambassadors with Moscow is hard to say. Sadat had the strength of character and the nearly megalomaniacal confidence to reverse his country's course almost overnight: Mubarak, an unglamorously disciplined ex-air force officer...