Word: musharraf
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Nothing tastes so sweet as a long-anticipated homecoming. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif hasn't set foot in his native land since 1999, when he chose exile in Saudi Arabia over a life prison term on charges of hijacking then-army chief General Pervez Musharraf's plane. But thanks to a recent ruling by Pakistan's suddenly feisty Supreme Court that Sharif should be allowed to return, the two-time former leader is expected to land in Islamabad on Sept. 10. What happens next is anyone's guess...
...President Musharraf, an increasingly beleaguered U.S. ally, is already facing mounting challenges from two very different quarters. Pro-Taliban militants are believed to be behind two suicide bombings in Rawalpindi on Sept. 4 that killed 27 people and are pummeling his security forces in the tribal areas. Meanwhile, the country's judges have been rolling back his edicts following the outrage generated by his attempts to unseat the popular and independent Supreme Court Chief Justice...
...Sharif's return has emerged as a wild-card challenge to Musharraf's increasingly unstable political equilibrium. A proposal for Musharraf to share power with Benazir Bhutto, another exiled former Prime Minister, had been intended to restore confidence in the general's rule and ensure him another presidential term when he faces reelection by a parliamentary assembly next month. The proposed deal involved Musharraf allowing Bhutto to return home and run for Prime Minister early next year in exchange for the backing of her powerful Pakistani People's Party (PPP) for his presidential ambitions. In exchange, Bhutto would be allowed...
...deal has been widely reviled, and many sticking points could scuttle it. According to the constitution, Musharraf will be prevented from running for another term as President as long as he continues to hold the title of Chief of Army Staff, and the Supreme Court appears unlikely to grant Musharraf another waiver that would allow him to rule in uniform. Bhutto has made the deal conditional on Musharraf quitting the military, but the dictator may be reluctant to surrender what remains the principal source of his authority. The military, however, while losing the presidency, would stand to regain popular support...
...Whatever the outcome of their negotiation, both Bhutto and Musharraf seem to have overestimated the dictator's popularity. More than a dozen parliamentarians from Musharraf's own party have defected to Sharif's faction, and Bhutto's PPP is also fracturing over the prospect of supporting Musharraf. Even with Bhutto's backing, it is no longer certain that Musharraf could muster the votes to retain the presidency. "He is in a shoestring situation," says Iftikhar Gilani, the former Law Minister under Bhutto. "He needs each vote, and he doesn't have a clear majority. Once he starts counting the votes...