Word: musharraf
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...biggest challenges facing U.S. foreign policy today is how to make Pakistan's military ruler, Pervez Musharraf, the best dictator he can be. That may sound like a dishonorable goal. In an ideal world, America would tell Musharraf that he'll get no more aid unless he hands over power. The problem is that in Pakistan, the military has always held power, even when civilians are nominally in charge. And as former State Department official Daniel Markey notes in Foreign Affairs, many Pakistani officers distrust the U.S. because we cut off aid in the 1990s. Threatening to do so again...
...sideline Musharraf, but we have some influence over how he rules. By Pakistani standards, his eight years in office haven't been terrible. He has allowed some press freedom (including a Saturday Night Live--style comedy show that often lampoons him). And guided by his Prime Minister, former Citibank executive Shaukat Aziz, Pakistan's economy has boomed. That's the good news...
...people we'd like to eventually supplant him) he has strengthened its Islamist radicals (the people we pray never do). Pakistani generals have a tradition of promoting jihadist militants, to use either as a club against regional enemies like India or as an excuse for retaining power. And Musharraf is no exception. In 2002, he manipulated parliamentary elections to hand Islamists control of two Pakistani provinces that border Afghanistan. By undermining Pakistan's large, relatively secular parties, he has left mosques and madrasahs as the most potent vehicles for political expression. Musharraf talks a good game about liberalizing Pakistani society...
This fall may be the U.S.'s best chance to help change that. Musharraf's five-year term as President, given him by the Parliament whose election he rigged, is ending. New parliamentary elections are due by early 2008. If he rigs or cancels them, Pakistan could explode, and he'll have to use brute force to hang on. That could further strengthen the Islamists, who feed on chaos, or prompt another coup, which could put a more anti-American general in charge...
...better option is for Washington to push Musharraf to make a deal with ex--Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the leader of Pakistan's biggest political party, who has been in exile since 1999, facing corruption charges. Musharraf would have to cede some power, probably by resigning his powerful post as head of the army, but could remain President while Bhutto becomes Prime Minister. He could then afford to hold free elections, since an alliance with Bhutto would give him real support in Parliament. Such an arrangement still wouldn't be democratic, and Bhutto's previous stint as Prime Minister hardly...