Word: musharraf
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...Musharraf has said in the past that he would rather resign than face the prospect of impeachment. Resignation is an option the coalition would also prefer over an all-out confrontation. The impeachment timetable allows Musharraf space to quietly step aside Proceedings are unlikely to begin until late August, and even before then pressure will be applied. The legislatures of the four provinces will ask the president to seek a "vote of confidence," and given his supporters' dramatic defeat in February, Musharraf is unlikely to survive that event...
...Indeed, Musharraf's options are few. Since stepping out of his military uniform last November, and being shorn of his parliamentary base in February, his authority has sharply diminished. But there is one arrow he can still reach for in his fast-emptying quiver: the power to dissolve parliament. Described as "the nuclear option," it would plunge Pakistan into a fresh phase of deep uncertainty and could even lead to unrest in the streets as each half of the coalition maneuvered to win full control of Parliament. However, a new election is likely to further empty parliament of Musharraf...
Those supporters, now reduced to the dwindling ranks of the opposition, have vowed to resist the move to impeach Musharraf. "This is a gimmick," says Mushahid Hussain, a prominent senator and close ally of the president. "If they are going to open up a new front, then they've raised stakes and all bets are off. I don't think they would have control of the consequences of their own decisions. They're getting into something that they have no capacity to deal with...
...Musharraf chooses to dig in his heels and fight back, he could conceivably call upon time-tested allies. He survived the past few months with the help of Washington and the army he once led. The Pakistan Army has a record of unchallenged unity and may not wish to see one of its longest serving chiefs humiliated. But will it risk further damaging its image by intervening? Gen Ashfaq Kayani, the new chief, was appointed by Musharraf and served as his intelligence chief. But Kayani has been keen to distance the army from politics and is likely to keep...
Washington is another question. American administrations have traditionally favored military strongmen over weak civilian governments. President Bush has routinely praised Musharraf in almost effusive terms and maintained complicit silence over his sacking of the judiciary last year. And with renewed anxiety over militancy in the tribal badlands, and disappointment with the civilian leaders' failure to tame it, the Bush administration may wish to hang onto the man it once termed its "most allied ally...