Word: musharraf
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...Musharraf's supporters Washington, there may be some relief that his survival, regarded as an absolute good for American policy, is assured--for the short term, at least. But what that means for the war on terrorism is unclear. Pakistan's commitment to taking on militants has always been uncertain. After the terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington in September 2001, Bush gave Musharraf a stark choice: he was either with the U.S. or against it. Musharraf chose to help, and Pakistan played an important part in tracking down key terrorist leaders as well as fighting al-Qaeda...
...Musharraf agreed to a cease-fire in the mountains, which has allowed religious extremists and militants to regroup. They have since spread into more moderate parts of the country. A U.S. National Intelligence Estimate in July found that over the past two years, al-Qaeda had made a comeback in Pakistan, re-established training camps and begun plotting fresh attacks against the U.S. When the cease-fire ended nearly a year later, suicide bombings suspected of being linked to al-Qaeda had become a regular feature of Pakistani life...
...many ways the declaration of an emergency plays into the militants' hands. Pakistan's army and intelligence forces must now devote time, energy and resources to stamping out opposition protests in the cities rather than fighting militants in their rural redoubts. With the majority of Pakistanis opposed to Musharraf, the government's struggle to establish control in places like the traditionally moderate Swat Valley, where an Islamist militia is waging a bloody campaign to establish Shari'a law, will become even harder. "Pakistan is very religious, but it is not extremist," says Ahsan Iqbal, information secretary for the Pakistan Muslim...
...Musharraf to change course? President Bush called the general on Nov. 7, again urging him to restore democracy. But Bush has little leverage with the dictator, even though the U.S. has given Pakistan more than $10 billion in aid since 9/11, with most of the money going directly to the military. Turning off the money tap is not seen as an option. "We are mindful not to do anything that would undermine counterterrorism efforts," Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said to reporters during a trip to China. Washington's Pakistan nightmare is that a weakened Musharraf may be ousted...
...there's little real danger of extremists coming to power, no matter what happens to Musharraf. The Pakistani army is still largely secular. The main political parties--Bhutto's PPP and Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League--are moderate. But continued U.S. support for an unpopular Musharraf may complicate Washington's relations with any future civilian government. Pakistanis see Musharraf as America's man and regard U.S. calls for democracy as insincere. "Musharraf is an enemy of Pakistan," says Akhtar Qazi, a 71-year-old retired schoolteacher with anger to match her brightly hennaed hair. "We sacrificed our lives for Pakistan...