Word: najaf
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...Sistani neither likes nor respects Moqtada, but he also recognizes that Moqtada has a considerable following among his own flock. And it will be plain for Sistani to see that his own position has weakened in the course of the siege, a widespread perception that he absented himself at Najaf's time of need. Sadr's rise has challenged the prevailing Shiite clerical order in Iraq in the way that Ayatollah Khomeini did in Iran 25 years ago, by creating an alternative center of clerical power outside of the seminary, in the kingdom of politics. One crucial difference, of course...
...draw attention to the fact that the latter is a far more influential figure among Iraqi Shiites. But the fact that Sistani appears to have been compelled to rush back from Britain - where he was undergoing treatment for a heart condition - in order to lead a mass march on Najaf is an indicator that things are not quite that simple. The Grand Ayatollah is a strictly religious figure, whose authority is recognized and venerated - even as it is, effect, challenged to move in a more radical direction - by Sadr's movement. Sistani is a "Marjah," an object of emulation...
...social class rift among Iraqi Shiites. Sadr's challenge to both the clerical establishment and the traditional Shiite political parties is giving voice to the frustrations of the marginalized majority, and his challenge is likely to continue, and even escalate long after the last shots are fired in Najaf. As Juan Cole, the University of Michigan Middle East historian whose blog is required reading for anyone seeking informed perspective on Iraq notes, Sadr's movement is primarily nationalist, rather than strictly religious, in character. Some of the early photographs of his supporters marching around Baghdad showed them as likely...
...traditional clergy and the Shiite establishment. And they see little to love in the deal taking shape under Allawi and the Americans. Which means that this rebellion is likely to continue long after the Mosque is cleared. And the fact that Sistani sees fit to go to Najaf not in a U.S. helicopter or government motorcade, but at the head of a procession of Iraqi Shiites willing to march into a war zone, suggests that he's recognized the need to align himself with the wave of outrage that has swept Iraq during the three weeks of the siege...
...Sadr will likely emerge from the Najaf siege intact, and his supporters will be looking for guidance on their next step. Although they were forced to surrender the Imam Ali Mosque - to Sistani, not to the Iraqi government - they also showed considerable ability to cause problems through guerrilla warfare from Baghdad to Basra, the latter city being where they took Iraq's oil exports offline for days at a time. The Iraqi government will persist with efforts to bring him on board, but he's reluctant to accord them legitimacy, and he may be assuming that the siege has actually...