Word: namibia
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Dates: during 1980-1989
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...infectious new mood of reconciliation followed suddenly upon a series of peace-negotiation failures. After nearly 18 years, the war between South Africa and a handful of black guerrillas intent on liberating Namibia, held by South Africa in violation of a United Nations ruling, had vastly broadened in scope. The presence of the guerrilla SWAPO bases on its territory brought Angola into the fray, and that led South Africa to retaliate with periodic raids and support for the pro-Western rebel National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA). Lately, the painstaking negotiations for Namibian independence, calling...
...Mozambique increasingly feared retaliation by South Africa; on top of that, the country had been weakened by a severe drought. Marxist Angola, under siege by UNITA, saw the wisdom of compromise following consistently heavy losses during South African raids. But South Africa, too, has been drained by constant war. Namibia alone costs South Africa $1 billion annually, some 6% of the national budget. The continuing toll of casualties has dismayed the public, and pressure from abroad for Namibia's independence has been intense. Said a senior Western diplomat: "The disincentives for continuing the war appear to exceed the incentives...
Then, on Dec. 6, Crocker met with Pik Botha in a Rome hotel room, this time to discuss Angola and Namibia. In a vigorous all-day session, Crocker convinced the South African leader that a pullout of his country's forces in Angola could lead to a ceasefire, paving the way for a Namibian settlement. Meanwhile, in meetings on the Cape Verde Islands, Wisner won agreement from Angola that in return it would restrain further SWAPO attacks. As the disengagement went into effect in February, a team of U.S. observers was sent to the Namibian capital of Windhoek...
These moves have yielded an unprecedented climate of confidence, but the biggest hurdle remains: achieving a political settlement for Namibia. The Cuban withdrawal from Angola, which South Africa insists on as a condition for independence, seems unlikely to be met, however, until the Angolan government finds some way of defusing the UNITA threat. Recently, U.S. diplomats have voiced cautious optimism, claiming that the Angolans are beginning to recognize that UNITA must be given a political voice in the government...
...eventually cleared for free elections in Namibia, black rule is certain to be the choice of its 1.2 million people, 85.7% of whom are black. Are South Africa's ruling whites willing to allow that development, which would create an unbroken arc of black-ruled states along their border? The answer at the moment appears to be a qualified...