Word: nasdaq
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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Already, chip-equipment and chipmaker stocks have taken wing. Shares of chip giant INTEL are up 71% since the Sept. 21 market bottom, while shares of APPLIED MATERIALS, the world's biggest maker of equipment used to manufacture chips, are up 76%--twice as much as the NASDAQ composite. Behind the surge has been a string of reports that chip inventories have been pared, and new orders are flooding in. From November through January, orders grew at an annualized rate double that of the same period a year earlier...
...part of the recovery for many months--and will probably be short lived at that, as businesses move quickly from paring inventories to maintaining them. But it's a solid start. Investors have bought into it big time: over two weeks, the Dow has risen 8%; the tech-heavy NASDAQ, 12%. But market sentiment can be fickle. A more encouraging sign is that productivity--which normally declines during recessions as output falls faster than hours worked--amazingly increased during the slump. The Labor Department reported last week that output per worker surged at an annualized rate...
...unemployment number for February, the only big economic news of the week, could make or break the current euphoria; beyond that, retail sales should be king as investors check and re-check their premises about consumer demand still being there when supply picks up. If the Dow and NASDAQ are still over 10,000 and 2,000 in two weeks we'll at least know that Wall Street's current exuberance was serious. If they're still headed north in two months - at the rate investors are pricing in this recovery, that's no sure thing even if it does...
...reform - knee-jerk selling. Companies with dark accounting clouds (Tyco, Global Crossing, Enterasys Networks), questionable earnings details (Amazon.com) or simply lots of complicated ways of making money (GE) all took baths Monday as "Enronitis" fueled a 220-point selloff of the Dow and a 55-point drop in the NASDAQ...
...thus spending more; it means the economic recovery can proceed apace. Enron, meanwhile, means a second guess - is this company truly good, or is it too good to be true? - and second-guessing is not the kind of attitude of which sustained bull markets are made. The Dow and NASDAQ's January chart lines are jagged, but the trend is clearly downward since Probe Day, January 9, and for every buyer whose glass is half full there seems to be two who'd rather wait before they take a drink...