Word: nasdaq
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...unemployment number for February, the only big economic news of the week, could make or break the current euphoria; beyond that, retail sales should be king as investors check and re-check their premises about consumer demand still being there when supply picks up. If the Dow and NASDAQ are still over 10,000 and 2,000 in two weeks we'll at least know that Wall Street's current exuberance was serious. If they're still headed north in two months - at the rate investors are pricing in this recovery, that's no sure thing even if it does...
...reform - knee-jerk selling. Companies with dark accounting clouds (Tyco, Global Crossing, Enterasys Networks), questionable earnings details (Amazon.com) or simply lots of complicated ways of making money (GE) all took baths Monday as "Enronitis" fueled a 220-point selloff of the Dow and a 55-point drop in the NASDAQ...
...Second case in point: the month of January. The brave new year started out gangbusters, with the Dow opening Jan. 2 at 10021 and the NASDAQ at 1979 and closing the holiday-shortened week three days later at 10259 for the industrials and 2059 for the techs, respectively. Those were gains in the 10-20 percent range, gains that had the pundits gleefully talking about "the January effect" and noting how good starts, historically, make for good years...
...opened that week at 10261 and closed it at 9987 - goodbye, 20 percent - and the NASDAQ, after opening at 2037, puttered along until it was lucky to close at 2022. Two weeks later, the Dow is now twitching ineffectually in the 9700 range, the NASDAQ's idling in the 1900 range, and while sporadic big selloffs like Tuesday's 200-pointer aren't snowballing yet, there never seem to be as many buyers on the way back up as there were sellers on the way down...
...thus spending more; it means the economic recovery can proceed apace. Enron, meanwhile, means a second guess - is this company truly good, or is it too good to be true? - and second-guessing is not the kind of attitude of which sustained bull markets are made. The Dow and NASDAQ's January chart lines are jagged, but the trend is clearly downward since Probe Day, January 9, and for every buyer whose glass is half full there seems to be two who'd rather wait before they take a drink...