Word: nasdaq
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...NASDAQ has of late been the economy's best leading indicator - the crash of spring 2000 begets the economic slowdown of fall 2000, for example - and the tech "wealth effect" has also become the main engine by which Alan Greenspan gets rate-cut money into people's pockets before the cuts actually have their full effect on the economy...
...markets shudder to life. People and businesses start feeling a little better, and spend some money. By summer's end, 12-month earnings outlooks are on the rise, and by fall some folks are even turning a profit. After all, like a repenting teenage shoplifter, a tearful NASDAQ has given back everything it took since the bubble was born. With Greenspan cutting rates, how much lower could it possibly...
...Monday, the NASDAQ dropped more than 6 percent and found a low - 1923 - not seen since December 1998; the mind-blowing 15-month rally that pushed the tech-heavy index to beyond 5000 on March 10 of last year is now utterly erased. The Dow dropped, er, only 4.1 percent (a measly 436 points) as each and every one of the index's 30 stocks lost ground. And the S&P 500 finally slipped into official "bear market" territory, now 23 percent off its highs and tasting those same December 1998 depths as the NASDAQ...
...never mind how many times you've heard this before (the "bottom" talk's been circulating for at least 1000 points on the NASDAQ by now), the end of the carnage does look to be near. A day as bad as Monday can be good news in itself - they call it "capitulation," when the trading floor is wet with tears - and some analysts hold that it's a must before any turnaround rally can really take hold...
...Well, here's the scary thought - that a 12-month NASDAQ bear market (in which it's lost 63 percent of its value) will be good for at least a 12-month slowdown, maybe more. The rest of the world has the same cold the U.S. does, and there's not much reason at all for people to start buying computers and cell phones all over again, seeing as how they all do pretty much the same thing they did last year. Under this scenario, we're still near the bottom - definitely nearer, at least, than...